Colby’s First Quarter Update

The first quarter of 2021 has been interesting so far. It has gone exactly how I expected in some ways and has gone very differently in others. The EV pump due to Biden being elected has seemed to stall out already, which is much earlier than I expected it to start to fizzle out. The other surprising thing that has happened is the increase in bond yields which, has added some extra volatility to the markets. Overall the economic recovery has continued to hum along fairly well so far this year with the stock market hitting occasional bumps here and there with bond yields going up (mostly just in the tech and hype stocks though). Anyways, here is how my picks are fairing so far this year.

These first five picks are my picks to outperform the market and/or the 10% benchmark for the year. The TSX has also had a really good run in the last 3 months with a gain of 8.93% over that time span. Only time will tell if the TSX can beat 10% for the year as well (Spoiler alert it usually doesn’t). To give you an indication it is up 41.94% in the last 12 months and 42.16% in the last 5 years which, basically means without the market crash last March the TSX basically would have finished even for the past 5 years.

Advertisements
  1. Kirkland Lake Gold Ltd. (KL) January 1st Price $52.60/ April 1st Price $44.44/ -15.51% YTD– Obviously Kirkland has not had a very good 2021 so far. They continue to pay a really good dividend and still have no debt and a very low P/E ratio. While this provides a very good buying opportunity in my opinion it has not performed how I expected it to this year so far. I largely think this market drop has been because of the continued economic recover and the fact that people are starting to move away from safe haven commodities like gold as the economy recovers.
  2. Manulife Financial (MFC) January 1st Price $22.65/ April 1st Price $27.28/ +20.44% YTD– Manulife has been coming up pretty well since last March and will likely continue to recover for a decent portion of the year. Their P/E ratio is still under 10 which is pretty low even for this type of stock, and their dividend yield is still over 4%. They have performed pretty how I expected so far this year which, is a bit surprising honestly, most of the time my short-term guesses are not the greatest.
  3. General Motors (GM) January 1st Price $41.64/ April 1st Price $57.80/ +38.81% YTD– This is one of those stocks that has benefited from the EV push and Biden win. They have also had the benefit of not having pulled back in the last month or so like some of the other renewable stocks have. They have not brought back their dividend yet and there is a lot of time left in the year still, but the return so far is very promising.
  4. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) January 1st Price $68.80/ April 1st Price $79.00/ +14.83% YTD– Pretty much all bank stocks were hit pretty hard when Corona was declared a pandemic. They have been having a pretty strong recovery ever since last March and might still have a bit of room to run yet. They are not at as low of a P/E ratio as Manulife but their dividend yield is a bit higher at 4.5%. As the economy recovers they should continue to recover as well.
  5. Ballard Power (BLPD) January 1st Price $29.78/ April 1st Price $30.29/ +1.71% YTD– Ballard has surprised me a bit so far this year, I thought for sure they would have a pretty solid run for at least half the year if not a full year after Biden’s win but that seems to have sputtered out already. It’s not entirely surprising since they are not profitable and are mainly a hype stock until fuel cell energy becomes mainstream.
Advertisements

The last 5 picks are the stocks I don’t think will outperform the market for the year.

  1. Boeing (BA) January 1st Price $214.06/ April 1st Price $252.96/ +18.17 YTD- Obviously I have been horribly wrong on this stock so far this year. I am more than Ok with that as I am long on Boeing Currently. Boeing has continued to recover very well as the 737MAX groundings have mostly been lifted worldwide and the orders have really started to pick up for these planes. This has allowed Boeing to recover fairly well and put them back on track to compete with Airbus again. They did miss out on a big Military contract recently, but considering everything else that has gone wrong for Boeing since 2019 that was actually pretty minor. If they continue to sell planes and can pick up some more military and space contracts this year they will be looking pretty good to actually start turning a profit again in 2022.
  2. Stellantis (Formerly FIAT Chrysler)(STLA) January 1st Price $18.09/ April 1st Price $17.91/ -1.00% YTD- While the merger is still pretty new and non of the merger synergies have been realized yet I think most of their upside has been realized for now which will likely not see the stock price move too much for the rest of the year unless there are earnings surprises. That being said I did not count any special dividends in my calculation which, would actually put you up for the year on this stock or very close to it. This would still put your return for the year below the 10% benchmark. They might surprise and jump in price by the end of the year but I think that is unlikely at this point.
  3. Finning International (FTT) January 1st Price $27.03/ April 1st Price $32.51/ +20.27 YTD- This is another stock that I have been wrong on so far this year. I definitely underestimated how much the recovery of oil prices would help this stock. Obviously oil prices have a huge effect on finning stock as a large portion of the company build, sells, maintains and services oilfield equipment. I just incorrectly figured their recovery would be a lot slower. I’m not sure how much more upside they will have this year but it will be interesting to watch anyways.
  4. Canopy Growth (WEED) January 1st Price $31.32/ April 1st Price $40.20/ +28.35% YTD- I am actually a little impressed at how badly my underperform picking was so far this year, but I don’t feel too bad because I would always like to have stocks outperform my expectations especially because I either own or am watching every stock on this list. Canopy has had a bit of a run to start the year largely based on the state of New York voting to legalize. While Canopy still doesn’t and is still not that close to being profitable this will definitely help with that if they can steal a decent market share. The excitement of investors over this definitely shows in the share price.
  5. Bell (BCE) January 1st Price $54.43/ April 1st Price $57.18/ +5.05% YTD- Bell is one that has performed pretty much as expected. They haven’t gone up or down a large amount. They just continue to pour money into infrastructure and investors pockets through dividends with their yield still over 6%. That actually puts them on pace to beat the 10% benchmark for the year but we’ll just have to wait and see how that goes.

So basically so far I am 3 for 5 on my outperform guesses and 2 for 5 on my underperform guesses. I suppose 50% isn’t too shabby overall.

Remember to always do your own research and not just by hype stocks that other people are telling you to get into. That being said doing a list like this could be a good way for you to follow and get to know some companies better so you can have a little more confidence when you do decide to buy into a company.

Advertisements

Disclaimer: I am currently watching or own every stock on this list. All prices are as of April 1st.

Published by Colby McTavish

I am a Third year Heavy Equipment Technician. I also have a diploma in business management from MacEwan university. I have 2 children. In my spare time I race stock cars, play ball hockey, trade stocks and work on vehicles when I am not hanging out with my kids and my other half.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: