GFL Environmental and Waste Connections are two North American waste businesses a Canadian investor can buy on the TSX. Both have recurring collection and disposal revenue, and both use acquisitions to expand their networks. But GFL closed its SECURE Waste Infrastructure acquisition in September 2026, changing the scale and risk of its investment case. I would compare current cash generation, leverage and growth prospects before choosing either stock.
GFL has been the more aggressive consolidator, while Waste Connections has a longer record of strong adjusted margins and shareholder returns. The SECURE transaction could improve GFL’s Western Canadian footprint, but it also adds financing and integration work. The choice is less about picking a universal winner and more about deciding which risks and business qualities fit your portfolio.
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Financial Snapshot: Q2 2026 Results
GFL reported C$1.948 billion in second-quarter 2026 revenue, up 16.3% year over year, including 6.4% organic revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA was C$591.2 million, or a 30.4% adjusted margin, while adjusted free cash flow was C$236.7 million. The company also reported a C$162.6 million net loss from continuing operations. These figures predate the September SECURE closing and are not results for the combined business.
Waste Connections reported US$2.562 billion in second-quarter 2026 revenue, up from US$2.407 billion a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA was US$840.1 million, approximately 32.8% of revenue, and reported net income was US$296.4 million. GFL reports in Canadian dollars and Waste Connections in U.S. dollars, so the amounts cannot be compared as if they use the same currency. The adjusted metrics also use company-specific definitions.
The Q2 results show growth at both companies, with a higher adjusted EBITDA margin at Waste Connections. But one quarter does not settle the long-term question, particularly with SECURE now part of GFL. I would track integration, cash conversion and leverage in the next few reports.
Growth and Profitability: Different Models
GFL’s 16.3% Q2 revenue growth included acquisition contributions and 6.4% organic growth, with 6.1% core pricing. Its adjusted EBITDA rose 14.8% year over year, while the adjusted margin of 30.4% was slightly below the 30.7% reported a year earlier. The reported net loss from continuing operations is a reminder that adjusted profitability is not the same as earnings attributable to shareholders. Its July 2026 guidance, which excluded SECURE, projected C$7.51–7.53 billion of annual revenue and approximately C$2.29 billion of adjusted EBITDA.
Waste Connections’ Q2 revenue rose about 6.4% from the year-earlier quarter, and adjusted EBITDA increased from US$786.4 million to US$840.1 million. It reported US$296.4 million in quarterly net income and raised its full-year outlook to US$10.02–10.05 billion of revenue and US$3.33–3.34 billion of adjusted EBITDA. The company said acquisitions with more than US$100 million in annualized revenue had closed during the first half. Those outlook figures are management guidance, not completed results.
GFL offers more near-term reported top-line growth, while Waste Connections currently reports the higher adjusted margin and a more established earnings record. The SECURE deal may change GFL’s scale and mix, but its benefit has to be demonstrated in post-close results. Both companies’ adjusted measures should be read with their reconciliations, especially when comparing margins and cash flow.
Balance Sheet Strength and Risk Profile
GFL’s SECURE purchase closed September 1, 2026. The transaction used revolving-credit capacity, 75.1 million newly issued GFL subordinate voting shares and a new US$1 billion senior secured term loan. It adds a Western Canadian waste-infrastructure network that GFL expects will improve scale and route density, but those expected benefits are not yet proven in post-close results. Dilution, integration, financing costs and the pace of debt reduction are central risks for shareholders.
At June 30, before SECURE closed, GFL reported 4.0 times net leverage on its company-defined run-rate EBITDA measure; management targeted the mid-3s by year-end. That target is forward-looking and deserves a fresh check after the transaction. Waste Connections points to its balance sheet and cash generation as capacity to fund acquisitions and repurchases, but its debt metrics use a different reporting basis. I would avoid declaring a precise leverage winner without reconciling the two measures.
For a more conservative investor, Waste Connections’ established margin and cash-flow record may be easier to underwrite. GFL offers a larger integration opportunity and correspondingly more execution and financing risk after SECURE. The attractiveness of either stock still depends on the price paid.
Valuation: Compare on a Consistent Basis
GFL’s reported earnings can be affected by items that make a simple trailing P/E misleading. Its newly issued shares and SECURE financing also change the capital structure, so a price target or multiple from before the closing is not a current valuation case. I would compare enterprise value with a clearly defined cash-flow measure and include post-close debt before deciding whether growth is cheap or expensive. That requires a dated market snapshot and the next combined-business results.
Waste Connections has a record of adjusted profitability, but a quality business is not automatically a bargain. A forward P/E or cash-flow yield needs a current share price, a stated reporting period and a clear definition of the underlying measure. I would compare both businesses on the same date, in a consistent currency, and account for each company’s non-GAAP adjustments. This is a due-diligence framework rather than a price target.
GFL may justify a different valuation if SECURE creates durable cash generation, but that outcome has to be demonstrated. Waste Connections may deserve a premium for its operating record, though paying too much can still limit returns. Neither stock can be labelled undervalued without current comparable figures.
Dividend Reliability and Shareholder Returns
GFL declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.0169 per subordinate voting share for the second quarter of 2026. That small cash payment is not the main reason to own the stock; the investment case depends more on cash-flow growth and disciplined integration of acquisitions. Dividend yield changes with the share price and should be checked at the time of an investment decision.
Waste Connections pays a quarterly dividend and has a longer record of increasing its payout. Its Q2 2026 outlook called for US$1.40–1.45 billion in adjusted free cash flow for the full year, a useful measure to watch alongside dividends and acquisition spending. The payout and cash flow are reported in U.S. dollars, and a Canadian holder also faces currency movement. A past dividend-growth record is valuable context, not a guarantee of future increases.
Investors focused on an established dividend record may prefer Waste Connections, while those seeking a more aggressive acquisition-led growth story may be more interested in GFL. Neither choice should rest on an undated yield figure alone.
Which Waste Stock Fits Your Priorities?
Both companies operate in a business with recurring collection and disposal needs, but they offer different investment cases. GFL’s Q2 2026 growth and SECURE acquisition make it a more aggressive consolidation story. Its shareholders must also account for the new shares, additional financing and the execution required to turn the acquisition into durable cash flow. I would watch post-close leverage and margins before treating its projected benefits as achieved.
Waste Connections reported a higher Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin and substantial adjusted free cash flow guidance. Its acquisition program and dividend history may appeal to an investor who puts more weight on an established operating record. Those qualities do not make the shares attractive at every valuation, and adjusted results require the same scrutiny as GFL’s. Its own acquisition execution, volumes, labour costs and capital spending remain risks.
My take: Waste Connections may suit investors prioritizing an established margin and dividend record; GFL may suit those comfortable with more integration and financing risk in pursuit of growth. Compare both at a current price and on the same currency and reporting basis before deciding. There is no decisive winner for every investor.
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